The introuction, which incidentally is the weakest part of the hour long presentation, is below, with an indexed link to each section provided below.
01. Introduction 09 min 09 sec
02. Niall Ferguson Opening Remarks 01 min 40 sec
03. Historical Cycles of Empire Decline 07 min 07 sec
04. Complexity Theory 08 min 20 sec
05. Implications for the United States 06 min 22 sec
06. Interest Payments as a Share of US Revenue 01 min 56 sec
07. Failure of Perception 02 min 43 sec
08. Debt Payment Overtaking Defense Spending 06 min 58 sec
09. Q1: Healthcare Reform 04 min 10 sec
10. Q2: China’s Military Sustainability 02 min 38 sec
11. Q3: Gold Investing 01 min 24 sec
12. Q4: Political Stability of China 02 min 42 sec
13. Q5: Children Teaching You About Debt / Radical Islam 03 min 57 sec
14. Q6: Advice to Obama 02 min 40 sec
15. Q7: Limits of Keynesian Stimulus 03 min 46 sec
16. Q8: Better Leadership in the West 03 min 27 sec
17. Q9: Fear of Hyperinflation 05 min 09 sec
- Partner:
- Australian Broadcasting Corporation
- Location:
- Centre for Independent Studies
Sydney, Australia - Event Date:
- 28th July 10
- Speakers:
- Niall Ferguson
- Summary
- Throughout history the rise and fall of empires isn’t slow or cyclical, as we like to think, but arrhythmic…it mostly happens very, very suddenly. America is a superpower on the edge of chaos, according to economic historian and author Niall Ferguson. U.S. debt levels, he says, and its unwillingness to address the problem, has put it in the same category as other great empires which have collapsed throughout the ages.
Ferguson argues the world is changing. There’s the rise of authoritarian China as a super-power; a Keynesian president leading a weakened United States; the re-emergence of democratic India as a great power; the continued decline of Japan; and the probability of continued global economic instability ahead.
Is the rise and fall of empires cyclical or arrhythmic? How does economic profligacy — whether the result of arrogance or naivety — contribute to the downfall of civilizations? Not to be missed, the address will offer a timely review of primacy, leadership, and the complex factors behind the rise and fall of great powers and civilizations.
